Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (9/17-21, likely voters, July in parens):
Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 48 (43)
Bill Cassidy (R): 32 (36)
Michael Jackson (I): 9 (13)
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Those are some nice starting numbers for Cazayoux. Hopefully he can minimize Jackson’s impact, but it looks like he’s beginning the campaign with some breathing room.
We’ll post the full polling memo when we get it — which should be very soon. Oh, and while we’re at it, here’s Don Cazayoux’s latest ad.
UPDATE: Full polling memo below the fold, and it contains some more good news. Constituents are giving Cazayoux solid ratings for his work during Hurricane Gustav and its aftermath.
Especially after seeing that Republican poll showing Paul Hodes only up 43%-39% in NH-02.
MJ only getting 9% is good; I assume by election day he’ll only get around 3-5%; most 3rd party candidates poll higher. Good news is that Cazayoux lead is big enough that he doesn’t need to win ANY of the undecideds to win.
I am actually not surprised by this poll.
Great result for Cazayoux, expecially as Jackson should fade as the election nears. I always take these campaign polls with a large grain of salt, however. Hopefully, independent polling confirms.
BTW, what is the deal with Jackson? What does he gain by running other than the enmity of all Cazayoux supporters?
since no incumbent anything has lost an election in like one hundred years, I though Cazayoux had that going for him. Gov. Treen was like the last major incumbent to lose something, and he lost to Edwin Edwards, I mean, come on, in Lousiana they might as well have put God on the ballot, it would have been the only way to find some one more liked. No senator or representative to my knowledge has lost reelection since like the 1890s, Buddy Roemer, but he lost his primary becuase he was a miserable politician. I’m glad to see my hopes confirmed to a degree in this poll, mainly that Jenkins huge name recognition powerful loyalty from evangelicals and popularity among upper class white votes actually made him a stronger candidate than a brand new, unknown state senator. Most of these voters don’t know Cassidy, he doesn’t have their loyalty, and he’s not fundraising well. Many are considering going ahead and going for Cazayoux. This and LA-04 are probably going to be the only districts in Louisiana that Obama gains significant ground over Kerry in. I’ve been getting good reports from downsouth, so far so good.
do have a way of helping out vulnerable politicians, just ask Gov. Barbor, or Rep. Melancon.
Despite the fact that I don’t like that he’s a social conservative, I like Cazayoux and I’m glad we won that seat. He will be a great voice on economic concerns in the Democratic majority; on healthcare and on poverty. He’s an important asset in a conservative red state.
I’m glad to see he’s doing so well.
I’m feeling much better about this race now. I guess I should have known with LA – they love their incumbents.
It’s starting to look like we’re going to end up with a 4-3 dem delegation from LA this year. How great would that be considering this is possibly the only state where the GOP is on the rise?